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226 contributions to Invest & Retire Community
May 6 inÂ
UNG
For covered call selling (aka PMI) lovers: UNG offers 5% a month on at-the-money calls. Be careful though, it can move fast. For those who is new to nat gas: storage is like 40% above 5-year average, but production is falling and demand is EXPECTED (translation: it is speculation) to rise. Hence high implied volatility, reflected in the high option premium. 0834 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are extending last week's bounce off technical support, backed by LNG feedgas demand and prospects of more power-sector use as Texas weather heats up. "If LNG can edge higher, a boost from laggard Henry Hub physical pricing may reinforce upward momentum for Nymex gas," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Also supportive is the decline in natural gas rigs, which fell by 3 last week to 102, according to Baker Hughes. "Producers have shed 19 rigs in 11 weeks, and the trend is likely to continue," Rubin says. Natural gas for June delivery is up 1.9% at $2.183/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com) P.S. I have a large position in NatGas and am losing big $ today on the three-day runup 😪. I have been biased short thinking the spike last week was a short covering and will exhaust itself.
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New comment 3d ago
1 like • 5d
Hit $14.6 target. Should make a pullback and attack $16.
1 like • 3d
I wonder if anyone is UNG or I am talking to myself. It not only hit $14.6 but broke through the supply but also pulled back to where it made the breakout from. We can target $16.1. I rolled $14 and $14.5 for .45, it is 3% in two weeks.
4d ago inÂ
A couple of MSTR trades
Sold the MSTR 29 Nov 2024 380 Put for premium of 15.51 Sold the MSTR 17 Jan-25 400/390 Bull Put spread for premium of 5.01 Note: MSTR is a very volatile stock.
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11
New comment 3d ago
3 likes • 4d
@Lindsay Talbot How do we know when it is?
2 likes • 3d
@Lindsay Talbot I was asking an honest question. How do we decide when a stock is close to a local top? Yesterday you thought MSTR was not close to the top and today you think it is, but what could be criteria to make this judgment?
2 likes • Sep 20
@Sandra Van Den Ham They announced Wed 2:15 EST.
1 like • 6d
@Monica Bernard Only an idiot like myself could have missed a fully mapped trade two times in a row 🤥.
2 likes • 6d
@Kevin Esmati 100 agree. That's why I did calendars on AMZN and not verticals an gave myself some time till expiration. Less reward but also less risk.
2 likes • 6d
@Kevin Esmati My thinking is you're playing NVDA in a similar fashion that you did AMZN. You are basically buying an OTM call that is kinda "all or nothing" bet. You reduce your cost making a vertical. With AMD you are diagonalizing it bring in features of the calendar. It gives you flexibility (at a cost, whether monetary or in management the trade). A calendar and a fly (fly is more so, but in a different way) reduce the risk in exchange of reducing profit potential.
Jul 17 inÂ
Bonds
Eugene got me really interested in TLT option spreads today, namely, LEAPs and call Verticals. TLT is an ETF of long maturity (20+ year) bonds. Do you know of short-term bond ETFS offering similar trades? I know SHY, IEF, IEI. Anything else someone can recommend looking at?
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New comment 6d ago
1 like • 25d
Bonds keep falling and came all the way down to the origin on the move. We saw a reaction here but that was it so far. Need to wait and see how this consolidation resolves.
1 like • 6d
Been about three weeks. Bears are still in control, but bulls are fighting for every inch.
1-10 of 226
@leon-k-2154
A developing trader who is looking to exchange ideas with other developing traders and learn from those who are ahead of me in the game.
Active 20h ago
Joined Nov 5, 2023
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