Sad Story for the Impatient But Exciting Times...

for those with patience. What am I talking about?

From 2020 to 2022, newer apartment investors laughed at how I do my underwriting. Politely they told me I was being conservative. Some told me that the deals I was looking for were "unicorns".

I look for apartment deals that have 2.5 to 3x+ equity multiple WITHOUT assuming rent increases of 3-5% per year. I've been investing since 1999 so I know that rents DO NOT always go up 3-5% per year.

Most of these newbie apartment syndicators were buying apartment deals that I consider BORDERLINE or mediocre deals that become "OK deals" because of the low-interest rates during those 3 years.

They were impatient to get a deal.

But I did not give in and followed the crowd. I stuck with my "too conservative" underwriting and I patiently waited for deals. During those 3 years, I added $100M worth of deals to my portfolio so my patience was rewarded and I proved that those "unicorn" deals exist.

And today, that patience will be rewarded even more.

There are $500B worth of multifamily mortgages that are MATURING in 2024 and 2025.

Out of those, about 8-9% have a DSCR of less than 1. DSCR stands for Debt Service Coverage Ratio. A DSCR of 1 means the property can't even pay for the mortgage payment. So those are definitely going to be foreclosed on.

Another 8-9% have a DSCR between 1 to 1.25. With today's higher interest rates, the DSCR of those mortgages if they refinance today will also be 1 or even below 1. In other words, those will be candidates for foreclosure too.

That's a total of $90B of multifamily mortgages that will be FORECLOSED on in the next 2 years. It's a sad story for those impatient apartment syndicators.

But it's an exciting time for those who patiently waited and not given in to FOMO.

1 comment

Apartment Investing Secrets

skool.com/apartment-investing-4128

This group is all about sharing apartment investing secrets.