Good Morning Folks, Happy Friday! The futures are indicating a higher open to this shortened holiday and month ending session. Falling treasury yields and dollar are helping fuel the pre-market enthusiasm. This week has brought us inflation updates that have hit the sweet-spot and decent demand during another heavy week of debt sales, both helping the rally that began last Friday when President-elect Donald Trump nominated Wall Street money manager Scott Bessent as treasury Secretary. The 10-year yield has retreated to its lowest point in a month (4.20%) and 30-year long bond yields at their lowest in six weeks. Energy markets have helped, with crude prices dropping on the tentative ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. U.S. gasoline pump prices have quietly ticked down to their lowest in more than three years. Next week will bring us labor market data to update us on the gradually cooling U.S. employment situation, with futures still pricing more than a 50% chance the Federal Reserve will cut another quarter point off policy rates next month. There will be no economic data today, as it was all moved to Wednesday because of the holiday and today's shortened session. No Fed members speaking today. *Today's half session has been historically a quiet session spent watching the malls for clues on the holiday shopping season. The light volume is insufficient to drive moves that stick and today being the last session of the month just adds an additional of uncertainty.* We have enjoyed another strong month of performance and rather than force a trade we will sit today out and return on Monday with a new trade. **Enjoy your weekend, and see you all at the Masterclass on Saturday at 4pm MST or 6pm ET. **

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Good Morning folks, happy Wednesday! The futures are indicating a slightly lower open as trade tariff jitters are replaced by inflation angst as the Federal Reserve gets another price check in the form of their favored report on inflation, the PCE report which will be released at 8:30am ET. With trading thinning this week ahead of what will effectively be a four-day Thanksgiving break, stocks are still feeding off assumptions about the extent of Trump's agenda of tax cuts, tariff rises and immigration crackdowns. There's also been some relief this week from a calming of the Treasury market, with yields retreating in a week of big debt sales, attributed to a mix of optimism about money manager Scott Bessent's nomination as Treasury Secretary and a fading of crude oil price following the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. Minutes from the Fed's post-election meeting this month showed policymakers divided over how much further they may need to cut interest rates from here, avoiding much guidance on the forward trajectory. Part of their uncertainty is the uncertainty of what the President-elect will do. Goldman Sachs shows a 25% tariff on U.S. imports from Canada, Mexico and China,- more than 43% of all U.S. imports, would generate government revenue of about 1% of GDP. But, by lifting the effective U.S. tariff rate by 8.6%, it would boost the core PCE price index by 0.9%. European markets are trading lower again on tariff uncertainty while Asia finished higher after data showed a less sharp decline in industrial profits, while traders placed bets Beijing will roll out more supportive policies to counter the risks of U.S. tariffs.

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Good Morning Folks, Happy Tuesday! The futures reversed overnight and are now pointing towards a higher open. Last night President-Elect Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, said he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on goods from China on 'day one,' until those countries clamp down on drugs, particularly fentanyl, and undocumented migrants crossing the border. The move would appear to violate a free-trade deal with both Mexico and Canada that he negotiated during his first term, but nonetheless the currencies of all three took a tumble overnight. China is particularly interesting because he has previously pledged to end China's most-favored-nation trading status and slap tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60%, much higher than those imposed during his first term. He did not mention Europe or Japan as part of the 'day one' plan, allowing the euro, which hit a two-year low on Friday, to hold on to Monday's bounce and the yen held up as well. ECB policymakers warned that the euro zone must be watchful to avoid inflation undershooting ECB's 2% target amid rising economic risks such as likely new U.S. trade tariffs that are "not good news for Europe." With another heavy schedule of Treasury auctions underway in a holiday-shortened week, speculation around the new administration's direction is pushing more regular economic monitoring to one side for now. That said, we will get some key reports today with Consumer Confidence and New home sales at 10am ET and the Fed Minutes from the last meeting at 2pm ET. No Fed members are on the speaking schedule today.