US Stock Market Update: Nervous Start Amid Tech-Small Cap Rotation and Inflation Data
The market was on edge this morning following a significant shift from high-performing big tech stocks to small-cap stocks after the surprisingly mild June CPI inflation report. Futures now indicate a 94% probability of a September rate cut, up from 70% before the CPI data was released. Additionally, there's a 58% chance of another cut in November and an 87% chance of a December cut. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee praised the latest inflation data as “excellent,” noting, “this is what the path to 2% looks like.” Tesla's shares plunged 8.4%, their largest drop since January, due to a Bloomberg report stating the company is delaying its robotaxi reveal by about two months. Boeing also announced further delays for the delivery of some 737 Max aircraft slated for 2025 and 2026, with timelines slipping by three to six months. This morning, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected, contrasting with the CPI data. Still to come is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data at 10 a.m. ET. Earnings season kicks off today with JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo reporting results. Currently, Wells Fargo is down, JPMorgan is slightly lower, and Citi is trading higher, though their conference calls are still pending. The unexpected PPI data has added uncertainty to today's market open. If the 10-year yield rises, it could reverse yesterday's rotation from mega-cap and AI stocks to small-caps. Conversely, if the 10-year yield falls, the trend from yesterday might continue.